In times of non-linear growth, probability of collateral damage increases. Assumptions that held true in the past break down, and pre-existing systems may not be able to support new developments.
Being antifragile is crucial in these times. To be antifragile is to avoid making critical decisions based on prediction; it is to position yourself to gain from disorder.
To make this concept less abstract, you can ask yourself, “what do I know for sure?” One fundamental truth I know: trust compounding.
Human brains (mine included) find it difficult to picture compounded growth. Thus, it is difficult to grasp the dividends that come from compounding. Fundamentally though, I know the payoffs are greater than I can imagine.
What compounds? Knowledge compounds, kindness compounds, relationships compound, and health compounds. And I recently came to the realization that optionality compounds. I feel this is less talked about, actually—the most common three I hear about is knowledge, relationships, and money. This revelation is quite timely, as I'm moving from limited decision trees of academic life to larger branching factors of post-graduation choice.
Optionality is critical to becoming antifragile. Options cascade exponentially as a decision tree. The more doors you start with, the more possible outcomes you have at the end. Options are different from decisions—I have the option, but not the obligation to choose a path. So better to have the option in the first place.
It's the second half of 2025, and I'm moving back to the bay. Being in San Francisco creates optionality at a low cost (except moving all my shit I guess), but I think it's about time to go home.